Paratransit Demand Analysis and Forecast
Access Services provides ADA complementary paratransit service to eligible people with disabilities in Los Angeles County, California. HDR has worked with Access Services since 2003, delivering statistical analysis of paratransit demand, ridership forecasting, risk analysis of ridership forecast, policy scenario analysis and market research. We update the ridership forecast annually using the most recent data and factoring in any pending or planned changes to paratransit operations, such as fare increases or service extensions. At the request of Access Services, a quick mid-year update is sometimes performed to account for recent developments and to ensure that the original projections adopted by the Board of Directors are on track.
Every year, we collect historical socio-economic data and operating data for all six regions served by Access Services. Using this information, we perform a multivariate regression analysis in EViews software to identify the determinants of paratransit demand in Los Angeles County. We then use the regression model to develop a five-year ridership forecast for each region. To account for uncertainty surrounding the model assumptions, we develop the forecast within a risk analysis framework using @RISK, an add-in to Microsoft Excel. The final forecast is generated under various fare scenarios defined by Access Services management.