Forecasting

Economic and Financial Support for ADOT Highway Programs | Statewide, AZ, US
Economic & Financial Support for ADOT Highway Programs | Arizona, US
Paratransit Demand Analysis and Forecast | Los Angeles County, CA, US
Paratransit Demand Analysis and Forecast | California, US

Forecasting is essential to making sound decisions and determining a realistic return for your infrastructure investment. As a core element of HDR's economics and finance program, we develop forecasts for toll authorities, state and provincial transportation departments, transit agencies and various other public and private-sector clients.

The Arizona Department of Transportation has counted on us for forecasting and policy analysis for more than 20 years. We've also worked with Access Services Inc., a Los Angeles-area paratransit service, since 2003 to provide statistical demand analysis, ridership forecasting, policy scenario analysis and risk analysis of forecasts.

We use state-of-the-art statistical techniques that identify all significant factors influencing the variable of interest and measure the relative contribution of each factor. Our projections typically are developed within a risk analysis framework (using @RISK software), which allows us to obtain a range of possible estimates with associated probabilities of occurrence, rather than a single expected or most likely outcome. This approach gives you the opportunity to select the forecast that offers the level of risk that you are comfortable with, based on your experience and project needs.

Services include:

  • Fuel Tax Revenue Forecasting
  • Sales Tax Revenue Forecasting
  • Traffic & Toll Revenue Forecasting
  • Transit Ridership Forecasting