Traffic, Revenue and Financial Forecasts and Risk Analysis
HDR is MBIA's sole external consultant for project-level risk analysis of transportation projects. Over a number of years, HDR has conducted analyses on major projects such as the Central Texas Turnpike, Toluca Toll Road, Chile Maipo Toll Road, Dulles Greenway, Chicago Skyway and Capital Beltway Hot Lanes.
We conducted a risk analysis of traffic and toll revenue forecast for the Dulles Greenway Toll Road in Loudon County, Va. The study consisted of a comprehensive assessment of historical trends observed in socio-economic, demographic and other indicators of regional economic activity. The study produced traffic and revenue forecasts based on an independent forecasting model and estimated the financial indicators in a risk analysis framework as it accounts for uncertainty surrounding the key assumptions. After HDR's analysis on behalf of MBIA and the refinancing of existing debt, Fitch Ratings upgraded to BBB from BBB- its rating on approximately $707 million of outstanding debt.
For the Central Texas Turnpike, HDR conducted risk analysis-based due diligence against tight deadline in support of bond insurance pricing for MBIA. We also conducted risk analysis seminars and training throughout MBIA Corporation. In the Washington, D.C., Metro Area, HDR conducted a risk analysis of traffic and revenue forecasts for the Capital Beltway HOT Lanes project. This project assessed the reasonability of the existing investment grade traffic and revenue (T&R) study for the HOT lanes facility, developing an independent T&R forecast for the facility, and advising MBIA on the traffic and revenue risks specific to the project for use in negotiations with the developer.